I'm constantly asked, "How's the Austin market?" "Do you think the market is slowing down?" The short answers to those questions is "great" and "nope"!
Thanks to Mark Sprague, Director of Information Capital at Independence Title, who gave an informative presentation at the Residential Real Estate Council's luncheon yesterday. Here are some key takeaways:
- Austin's employment growth is forecasted to be between 1 to 2% through 2019/2020 (primarily in technology, healthcare, and business & professional services).
- Real estate sales will continue to be strong; tight inventory in Austin and Dallas. Texas in general continues to see the longest expansive price growth run! Home and commercial values will continue to improve.
- A prime indicator of sales growth is job growth. Without job growth, there are no home/commercial sales. Historically, for every 3 jobs there is 1 home start. Texas added 297,100 net new jobs, growth of 2.4%, in the 12 months ending in October 2019.
- Almost 120,000 net new jobs are likely to be added (2.12% per annum growth) through 2023, bringing wage and salary employment to nearly 1.2 million aggregate positions.
- Global equity/capital looking at the strength of the Texas markets, particularly DFW and Austin. Top real estate values are found where there is top employment, strong GDP and strong consumer confidence.
- The Austin's area population has grown by an average of 55,500 persons annually, or 152 per day since 2010. Net migration since 2010 accounts for 12.9% of Austin's total 2018 population - a larger share than any other top 50 metro.
- The greatest source of migrants tot he Austin area is from other parts of Texas (Houston, Dallas, San Antonio), California (primarily Los Angeles), Florida, New York and Illinois.
- Regional psychology positive, but cautious in 2019 due to media negativity.
- Mortgage rates are stable. Every time rates move 1%, a buyer loses 12% buying power. Today's great interest rates mean there's never been a better time to buy!
"One of the reasons why many people feel concerned about the Austin and Texas markets is because we're seeing one of the longest expansive price growth runs in our collective memories!"